So 2014 has come to an end. This will definitely go down as one of the most defining years of our generation ( the 90's kids). All the conflicts, the social tensions, the economic and geo-political undercurrents of the first 13 years of the century culliminated in a year filled with conflicts, uprisings, and changes in the world.
There are 6 main events that happened this year which had a great impact on the world this year and I shall be discussing these in detail. They are in order from the least significant to the most significant.
# 6: The Start of the Asian Spring:
In 2014 there were protests in many East Asian countries.
There were hunger strikes in South Korea over the sinking of a ferry in March, the MV Sewol. This snowballed into a protest against the South Korean government. People are angry at them for the collusion between politicians and businesses. The protests ended in April.
There were protests in Taiwan from March to April as people occupied the Taiwanese legislature when a legislator from the ruling Chinese Nationalist Party said that a Trade Agreement with China would now be put to a vote in the legislature, where the ruling party was certain to prevail.This angered many activists who felt that it would be harmful to Taiwanese society and was seen as kowtowing to China. This became a wider protest against the lack of an open democracy in the country due to China's interference. We haven't seen the last of this. I guarantee it.
Thailand also saw similar slogans about corruption in various protests. This became an agitation against the military rule that Thailand is under and so there was a crackdown on these protesters. The unrest has not ended yet. Seeing that Thailand is quite close to India we better keep an eye on it.
There was also unrest in Indonesia against the newly elected Joko Widodo government due to hikes in fuel taxes, rising income inequality and corruption.
The most eye-catching unrest was in Hong Kong called the Umbrella Movement as people brought umbrellas to protect themselves from the police's water cannons. It was lead by a 17 year old, Joshua Wong. Hong Kong citizens protested for getting it's long-promised democracy. It was aggravated by rising living cost, limited infrastructure and rising inequality. This almost became a movement for independence from China which ended in December.
All these conflicts (albeit peaceful ) between people and their government shows a lack of democratic freedoms in these countries especially the ones claimed by China. Anti-China sentiment is very strong in Taiwan and Hong Kong. Xi Jinping better watch out. The other countries especially Thailand better fix things otherwise this could get out of hand.
#5: The Epic Ebola Epidemic:
This actually began late last December but intensified this year. It began in Guinea in December 2013 and then spread to Liberia and Sierra Leone. The Ebola virus disease is actually a very old disease which was first reported in the 1970s. However no cure was found for it because, well, it was only affecting poor people so the drug companies weren't interested.
# 4: Cold War 2.0
Which country in the world scares the U.S.A the most? Is it Iran with it's suspicious nuclear program? Nope. Is it China the world's fastest growing economy? Na. Is it Pakistan with it's breeding grounds of terrorism? No. It's Russia, America's old foe. Nobody can make the Yankees quake in their boots like the Ruskies. These two countries engaged in a global stare-down in the latter half of the 20th century, which the US won in '91. This was the Cold War.
And then in 2010 Russia, I mean, Yanukovych won. In 2013 Ukraine refused to sign the Ukraine-European Union Association Agreement which would have basically made Ukraine a European puppet. Not signing this lead to massive protests in November 2013 in Ukraine against the government which culminated in the 2014 Ukrainian revolution in which Yanukovych was impeached on 23rd February this year. This lead to agitations by Ukrainians of Russian ethnicity.
The Russian President, Vladmir Putin got fed up and began a military intervention in the Ukrainian province of Crimea on the 26th. He sent unmarked troops and military equipment to Crimea. A referendum was held in Crimea to decide whether the Crimean people wanted to stay in Ukraine or join Russia. They voted to join Russia, which annexed the territory.
This lead to sanctions by the US and EU with Russia retaliating. Mind you, only the UN can employ sanctions on a country. So all these sanctions violate international law. Not that that matters.
Russia was expelled from the G8 and there has been no diplomatic contacts between the US and Russia. Putin's been very belligerent and has not shown signs of ending the conflict. Caught in the crossfire was a Malaysian Airlines flight MH 370 which was shot down along the Russian/Ukrainian border. Russia has turned to it's neighbour China and it's best friend India for help. We've got to be careful to keep Russia and America both happy with us so we can benefit from the both of them.
So heres the score card of the new Cold War: Round 1 (Crimean annexation)
Russia - 1
West - 0
Round 2 ( Sanctions)
Russia - 0
West-1
So it's all tied.
I have no idea who's going to win this won.
# 3: The Modi Era Begins in India
From 7th April to 12th May 2014 the largest election in human history took place in India. It was a loud, grand and confusing affair. It saw 66% of the voting population vote with one name on their minds : Modi.
Narendra Damodardas Modi, the former Chief Minister of Gujarat became the 15th Prime Minister of India on 26th May 2014. His party (the BJP) and alliance (NDA) won the first majority of any party in 30 years. The ruling Congress party suffered its worst defeat as it got only 44 seats. And so began the Modi era in India. He has completely inspired the country to believe in itself. He was elected on a platform of development and has shown many signs that he might achieve it.
Petrol prices have been deregulated, $16 billion of foreign investments have come to the country since May. The GDP has gone up, inflation has reduced with Wholesale Price Inflation at 0%. Acche Din haven't come yet but if Modi does even 60% of what he said he'd do then they surely will come.
He has been very active in foreign policy. His foreign policy is distinctly different from that of the previous regime. He has given new focus to our neighbours like Nepal and Bhutan which he visited in the first two months of his tenure. He then visited Japan where he and Abe showed the world their bromance with a bear hug. He gave a veiled swipe to China where he criticized countries who encroached upon other country's lands and seas which was music to Japanese ears since they have a conflict with China over some islands.
He then had a summit meeting with the Chinese President which saw 14 MOUs signed. China promised to invest $20 billion in India through the next 5 years and establish 2 industrial parks. The summit would've been perfect except for a small snag. The Chinese invaded into Indian territory during the summit. The Indian army met them and outnumbered them 3 to 1. No bullets were fired but the tension was high and the standoff ended in 16 days. Modi warned Xi Jinping that "a small toothache can harm the whole body" to which Xi said that the border issue will be solved soon.
The most important summit was with the US. The Indian Prime Minister gave a speech at Madison Square Gardens and then met Obama in the White House. He also met the CEO's of 12 MNCs from whom he got $41 billion in investments for the next 5 years.
The US and India agreed to hunt down terrorist organisations especially ones from Pakistan. This was the first such agreement between the 2 countries. With America creating 300,000 jobs and India growing at 5% it can be said that the world's largest democracies are back in business.
The only problem with the BJP coming to power is that various extreme Hindu outfits have become more vocal and are making socially divisive remarks. This has troubled the minority communities specifically Muslims. But communal violence has reduced this year by 20% from last year. So hopefully the loonies from all religions will shut up and let us get on with our lives.
This is the beginning of a new era in India because it is the first time that a pro-business party got elected to power. 65% of the population is below the age of 35. Japan, Europe and Russia are in recession and growth is slowing down in China. India is looking like a beacon for global investors. If we all work hard and put aside our differences, our corrupt tendencies and chalta rahe attitude we could become a superpower by 2025.
But if we don't India will crash and burn in a storm of poverty, violence and anarchy. In other words - it's now or never.
#2: Terror has a new name - ISIS
A new terrorist organization has emerged on the scene named ISIS. And it is scaring the pants off everyone. It originated in 1999 with a different name Jama'at al-Tahwid wal-Jihad and was later renamed. It joined the al-Qaeda in 2004. In 2006 it joined with other Sunni militant groups and renamed their group as the Islamic State in Iraq. In 2013 they expanded into Syria and became the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria. In February 2014 they broke off from the al-Qaeda and formed their own group - ISIS. Their leader Abu-Bakhr Al Baghdadi launched a fierce offensive across Iraq and Syria and took over large swathes of both countries.
Their goal is to create an Islamic State (AKA a caliphate which is what they call themselves) from North Africa to Kashmir in India. Their leader has declared himself to be a caliph (the leader of all Muslims worldwide) but no Muslim community has recognised him as such.
They've killed thousands of people, use children as soldiers and women as sex slaves. Their targets are people of other religions but most of the people they've killed are Muslims.
The US is leading a coalition of 60 countries as it launches air strikes against ISIS. Their numbers have reduced but they haven't lost much territory and are recruiting. India is not part of this coalition but it has declared ISIS as a banned organization. We better improve our intelligence agencies to prevent them from carrying out any attacks on us.
I don't know if they'll be defeated. There's a slight possibility that they'll still be around 3 years from now. As long as they don't get any nukes then the situation can be controlled. But if they do...
#1: China becomes number 1.
China became the world's largest economy in 2014. You see, the size of any country's economy can be measured in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It represents the total dollar value of all goods and services produced over a specific time period. There are two main methods used to calculate the GDP of a country one is through purchasing power parity (PPP) and the other is through nominal GDP.
The IMF believes that PPP is a more accurate method. It released new data in October 2014 showing that the Chinese economy is the largest in the world according to PPP, it is $17.6 trillion while the USA's economy is $17.4 trillion.
This however doesn't mean that China has become a superpower. That title still goes to the US since it has the largest and most powerful army in the world. China has the second largest.
So that's how the year went. New problems emerged, old faultlines were cracked open, and a new global order has begun to take shape. Let's hope that the next year is a little calmer.
There are 6 main events that happened this year which had a great impact on the world this year and I shall be discussing these in detail. They are in order from the least significant to the most significant.
# 6: The Start of the Asian Spring:
In 2014 there were protests in many East Asian countries.
There were hunger strikes in South Korea over the sinking of a ferry in March, the MV Sewol. This snowballed into a protest against the South Korean government. People are angry at them for the collusion between politicians and businesses. The protests ended in April.
There were protests in Taiwan from March to April as people occupied the Taiwanese legislature when a legislator from the ruling Chinese Nationalist Party said that a Trade Agreement with China would now be put to a vote in the legislature, where the ruling party was certain to prevail.This angered many activists who felt that it would be harmful to Taiwanese society and was seen as kowtowing to China. This became a wider protest against the lack of an open democracy in the country due to China's interference. We haven't seen the last of this. I guarantee it.
Thailand also saw similar slogans about corruption in various protests. This became an agitation against the military rule that Thailand is under and so there was a crackdown on these protesters. The unrest has not ended yet. Seeing that Thailand is quite close to India we better keep an eye on it.
There was also unrest in Indonesia against the newly elected Joko Widodo government due to hikes in fuel taxes, rising income inequality and corruption.
The most eye-catching unrest was in Hong Kong called the Umbrella Movement as people brought umbrellas to protect themselves from the police's water cannons. It was lead by a 17 year old, Joshua Wong. Hong Kong citizens protested for getting it's long-promised democracy. It was aggravated by rising living cost, limited infrastructure and rising inequality. This almost became a movement for independence from China which ended in December.
All these conflicts (albeit peaceful ) between people and their government shows a lack of democratic freedoms in these countries especially the ones claimed by China. Anti-China sentiment is very strong in Taiwan and Hong Kong. Xi Jinping better watch out. The other countries especially Thailand better fix things otherwise this could get out of hand.
#5: The Epic Ebola Epidemic:
This actually began late last December but intensified this year. It began in Guinea in December 2013 and then spread to Liberia and Sierra Leone. The Ebola virus disease is actually a very old disease which was first reported in the 1970s. However no cure was found for it because, well, it was only affecting poor people so the drug companies weren't interested.
Ebola is pretty much the scariest disease at the moment. About 50% of the people who get it die, in about 2 weeks. As of 29th December 2014 there have been over 20,000 cases and 7800 deaths according to the WHO. But this is a conservative estimate. Cases have been reported in the US, Spain, Senegal, Nigeria, Britain and India. No cure has been found yet. Nigeria, the US, Spain and Senegal have been declared Ebola free. Of course it could still come back to those countries.
I have heard rumours that scientists are getting close to developing a cure. I expect this to continue until October next year. But, who knows? In the meantime just take care of yourselves guys.
I have heard rumours that scientists are getting close to developing a cure. I expect this to continue until October next year. But, who knows? In the meantime just take care of yourselves guys.
# 4: Cold War 2.0
Which country in the world scares the U.S.A the most? Is it Iran with it's suspicious nuclear program? Nope. Is it China the world's fastest growing economy? Na. Is it Pakistan with it's breeding grounds of terrorism? No. It's Russia, America's old foe. Nobody can make the Yankees quake in their boots like the Ruskies. These two countries engaged in a global stare-down in the latter half of the 20th century, which the US won in '91. This was the Cold War.
23 years later and the new cold war, Cold War 2.0 has begun. It's causes can be traced back to 2004 when Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma, who had peaceful relations with Russia decided not to contest for re-election in the 2004 Presidential elections. These elections were contested by two people, Viktor Yanukovych and Victor Yushchenko who were backed by Russia and the West respectively. Yanukovych won. Allegations of fraud lead to protests, strikes and civil disobedience which were encouraged by the opposition. Re-elections were held and Yushchenko won. This raised some eyebrows in Moscow who thought it was a western conspiracy.
And then in 2010 Russia, I mean, Yanukovych won. In 2013 Ukraine refused to sign the Ukraine-European Union Association Agreement which would have basically made Ukraine a European puppet. Not signing this lead to massive protests in November 2013 in Ukraine against the government which culminated in the 2014 Ukrainian revolution in which Yanukovych was impeached on 23rd February this year. This lead to agitations by Ukrainians of Russian ethnicity.
The Russian President, Vladmir Putin got fed up and began a military intervention in the Ukrainian province of Crimea on the 26th. He sent unmarked troops and military equipment to Crimea. A referendum was held in Crimea to decide whether the Crimean people wanted to stay in Ukraine or join Russia. They voted to join Russia, which annexed the territory.
This lead to sanctions by the US and EU with Russia retaliating. Mind you, only the UN can employ sanctions on a country. So all these sanctions violate international law. Not that that matters.
Russia was expelled from the G8 and there has been no diplomatic contacts between the US and Russia. Putin's been very belligerent and has not shown signs of ending the conflict. Caught in the crossfire was a Malaysian Airlines flight MH 370 which was shot down along the Russian/Ukrainian border. Russia has turned to it's neighbour China and it's best friend India for help. We've got to be careful to keep Russia and America both happy with us so we can benefit from the both of them.
So heres the score card of the new Cold War: Round 1 (Crimean annexation)
Russia - 1
West - 0
Russia - 0
West-1
So it's all tied.
I have no idea who's going to win this won.
# 3: The Modi Era Begins in India
From 7th April to 12th May 2014 the largest election in human history took place in India. It was a loud, grand and confusing affair. It saw 66% of the voting population vote with one name on their minds : Modi.
Narendra Damodardas Modi, the former Chief Minister of Gujarat became the 15th Prime Minister of India on 26th May 2014. His party (the BJP) and alliance (NDA) won the first majority of any party in 30 years. The ruling Congress party suffered its worst defeat as it got only 44 seats. And so began the Modi era in India. He has completely inspired the country to believe in itself. He was elected on a platform of development and has shown many signs that he might achieve it.
Petrol prices have been deregulated, $16 billion of foreign investments have come to the country since May. The GDP has gone up, inflation has reduced with Wholesale Price Inflation at 0%. Acche Din haven't come yet but if Modi does even 60% of what he said he'd do then they surely will come.
He has been very active in foreign policy. His foreign policy is distinctly different from that of the previous regime. He has given new focus to our neighbours like Nepal and Bhutan which he visited in the first two months of his tenure. He then visited Japan where he and Abe showed the world their bromance with a bear hug. He gave a veiled swipe to China where he criticized countries who encroached upon other country's lands and seas which was music to Japanese ears since they have a conflict with China over some islands.
He then had a summit meeting with the Chinese President which saw 14 MOUs signed. China promised to invest $20 billion in India through the next 5 years and establish 2 industrial parks. The summit would've been perfect except for a small snag. The Chinese invaded into Indian territory during the summit. The Indian army met them and outnumbered them 3 to 1. No bullets were fired but the tension was high and the standoff ended in 16 days. Modi warned Xi Jinping that "a small toothache can harm the whole body" to which Xi said that the border issue will be solved soon.
The most important summit was with the US. The Indian Prime Minister gave a speech at Madison Square Gardens and then met Obama in the White House. He also met the CEO's of 12 MNCs from whom he got $41 billion in investments for the next 5 years.
The US and India agreed to hunt down terrorist organisations especially ones from Pakistan. This was the first such agreement between the 2 countries. With America creating 300,000 jobs and India growing at 5% it can be said that the world's largest democracies are back in business.
The only problem with the BJP coming to power is that various extreme Hindu outfits have become more vocal and are making socially divisive remarks. This has troubled the minority communities specifically Muslims. But communal violence has reduced this year by 20% from last year. So hopefully the loonies from all religions will shut up and let us get on with our lives.
This is the beginning of a new era in India because it is the first time that a pro-business party got elected to power. 65% of the population is below the age of 35. Japan, Europe and Russia are in recession and growth is slowing down in China. India is looking like a beacon for global investors. If we all work hard and put aside our differences, our corrupt tendencies and chalta rahe attitude we could become a superpower by 2025.
But if we don't India will crash and burn in a storm of poverty, violence and anarchy. In other words - it's now or never.
#2: Terror has a new name - ISIS
A new terrorist organization has emerged on the scene named ISIS. And it is scaring the pants off everyone. It originated in 1999 with a different name Jama'at al-Tahwid wal-Jihad and was later renamed. It joined the al-Qaeda in 2004. In 2006 it joined with other Sunni militant groups and renamed their group as the Islamic State in Iraq. In 2013 they expanded into Syria and became the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria. In February 2014 they broke off from the al-Qaeda and formed their own group - ISIS. Their leader Abu-Bakhr Al Baghdadi launched a fierce offensive across Iraq and Syria and took over large swathes of both countries.
Their goal is to create an Islamic State (AKA a caliphate which is what they call themselves) from North Africa to Kashmir in India. Their leader has declared himself to be a caliph (the leader of all Muslims worldwide) but no Muslim community has recognised him as such.
They've killed thousands of people, use children as soldiers and women as sex slaves. Their targets are people of other religions but most of the people they've killed are Muslims.
The US is leading a coalition of 60 countries as it launches air strikes against ISIS. Their numbers have reduced but they haven't lost much territory and are recruiting. India is not part of this coalition but it has declared ISIS as a banned organization. We better improve our intelligence agencies to prevent them from carrying out any attacks on us.
I don't know if they'll be defeated. There's a slight possibility that they'll still be around 3 years from now. As long as they don't get any nukes then the situation can be controlled. But if they do...
#1: China becomes number 1.
China became the world's largest economy in 2014. You see, the size of any country's economy can be measured in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It represents the total dollar value of all goods and services produced over a specific time period. There are two main methods used to calculate the GDP of a country one is through purchasing power parity (PPP) and the other is through nominal GDP.
The IMF believes that PPP is a more accurate method. It released new data in October 2014 showing that the Chinese economy is the largest in the world according to PPP, it is $17.6 trillion while the USA's economy is $17.4 trillion.
This however doesn't mean that China has become a superpower. That title still goes to the US since it has the largest and most powerful army in the world. China has the second largest.
So that's how the year went. New problems emerged, old faultlines were cracked open, and a new global order has begun to take shape. Let's hope that the next year is a little calmer.
Very elaborate and detailed work Aaditya...excellent work..keep writing...!!!
ReplyDeleteThank you sir
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